BTC 29 Jan – still on track

BTC 29 Jan – still on track
January 28 11:10 2019

This is a short update to explain the price movements of today in terms of yesterday’s prediction.

In the post “BTC update” yesterday I explained that BTC was both in a channel (forming a bull flag) and a converging triangle (signalling a breakout) as shown below:

The triangle has now broken out – with some noteworthy results.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView
  1. The triangle broke downwards:
    • This was obviously not the positive breakout from the channel as I had hoped it might be.
  2. The price dip to a new 2019 low of approx $3380 did not break through the bottom of the channel:
    •  The channel remains intact and that the bull flag scenario is still in play.
  3. While still remaining in the channel, the probability that this is a bull flag becomes increasingly unlikely over time:
    • By now I would typically have expected a positive breakout, though I acknowledge that such things have no fixed timelines.
    • Repeated testing of the lower side of the channel is a negative sign and reduces the probability of the channel being a bull flag.
    • Bit Brain’s bull flag probability is now at 55% after the latest test and is dropping slowly.

Below is a zoomed in chart from Bitmex – in order to give the most accurate picture (thanks to its high volume).

I have used the Fibonacci Channel tool, something I should use more often. Usually I prefer the simplicity and ease of the Fork tool – even though I don’t normally use it as it is intended to be. It is noteworthy that Fib levels can be found far easier with the Fib channel tool than with standard horizontal levels (at least for the moment), so I will continue to use it while this channel continues to exist.

Summary:

The converging triangle terminated with a downwards price break. The channel held strong, keeping the bull flag alive. Probability of the bull flag scenario is decreasing as time goes on, but still remains the most probable scenario for now.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

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Bit Brain
Bit Brain

A walking crypto encyclopedia. Honest, Realistic, Opinionated. Futurist, Autodidact, Polymath.

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