BTC short-term

BTC short-term
December 26 10:28 2018

A look at BTC price predictions for the next 24 – 48 hours

For those of you who were too busy enjoying the pre-Christmas festivities to check your crypto feeds – you missed out on an exceptionally insightful Bit Brain series about capitulation. You can catch up here:

To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 1: The Question


To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 2: The Answer


To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. – Part 2(b): (The rest of) The Answer

BTC short-term

BTC concluded its fairly sudden rise with an abrupt breakout through the bottom of a converging triangle.

Since then it has formed a new downwards pointing tapering triangle, which I assess it will break out of within the next 24 hours.

That raises a few questions: Where and when will it breakout? Which way will it break? What happens thereafter?

As the new tapering triangle continues to lower prices, so BTC is becoming squeezed and will break one way or the other.

On the chart above you can see the tapering triangles (past and present), the current general trendline and the two future scenarios detailed below (yellow lines).

Scenario 1: BTC breaks in a positive direction

BTC will run along the top of the triangle before breaking sharply downwards and bouncing off the bottom of the triangle in the $3400 – $3500 range. It will then move sideways for roughly 24 hours – breaking through the top of the triangle in a bullish move.

It is uncertain whether price will either rise or fall after that, but being a bullish scenario, the odds are weighted in favour of a price rise after the sideways movement.

Looking at the larger chart and recent past movements, I consider Scenario 1 to be the most likely scenario.

Bit Brain odds of Scenario 1 occurring: 55%

Scenario 2: BTC breaks in a negative direction

BTC will run along the top of the triangle before breaking sharply downwards and breaking out through the bottom of the triangle in the $3400 – $3500 range. It will then continue downwards and find support in the $3100 – $3200 range.

BTC will then move sideways at the $3200 level for an indeterminate amount of time. Market sentiment will then dictate as to whether it will rise again or possibly capitulate (see the post series I linked to at the very beginning of this post).

Bit Brain odds of Scenario 2 occurring: 35%

There is also a 10% chance that something else may occur, what that would be is anyone’s guess.

I’d like to take this opportunity to wish you all a merry belated Christmas. May God bless you and keep you safe over the festive season, and hopefully grant you a prosperous 2018! 😃 Remember to take the time to enjoy a bit of a break with family and friends – regardless of what your religion or beliefs may be.

Yours in Christmas crypto

Bit Brain

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Bit Brain
Bit Brain

A walking crypto encyclopedia. Honest, Realistic, Opinionated. Futurist, Autodidact, Polymath.

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