I’m sticking with “BTC to $3k” – for now

I’m sticking with “BTC to $3k” – for now
December 09 11:35 2018

This has certainly been an interesting week for Bitcoin. I have refrained from making comments and projections about the price of BTC for the last few days, preferring to watch and see what happens, hoping for some sort of clear indication or confirmation.

The last few days have confirmed my fortnight old predictions of BTC heading to $3200. Looking at some major exchanges I see the following 2018 ATLs (from 7 December):

  • Coinbase: $3212
  • BitMex: $3200
  • Bitstamp: $3210
  • Bitfinex: $3278
  • OKCoin: $3204
  • Binance (USDT): $3225
  • Bittrex (USDT): $3226
  • Poloniex (USDT): $3227

What now?

BTC has now started climbing slowly in a two-steps-forward-one-step-back fashion. You can see on the chart below how is climbs and then has a few rather obvious and sudden drops in price.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

It’s climbing in what is best described as a “weak channel”, one which I do not think will last.

What next?

BTC obviously failed to bounce of the bottom when it hit $3200. Since a bounce can be expected upon the termination of a capitulation style event, one must conclude that we have not yet reached the bottom.

Instead I believe that BTC will probably drop to the $3000 mark or thereabouts, a major psychological level and one at which I expect strong support. I spoke more about the drop to $3000 a fortnight ago in Bit Brain’s Bearish Bitcoin Bodement – Part 2.

It might also just drop to $3200 again and bounce off that, but my gut tells me that it will still drop lower, sorry that I don’t have anything more concrete than that to go on. Whatever the precise figure, I am sure that we will reach that strong support as soon as BTC arrives at the logarithmic lines based on the previous major capitulation event. They’re the long red lines on the chart below and are constructed to run parallel to the line connecting the ATHs.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

Unfortunately they are very long-term lines, so reading an accurate figure off them is an impossibility. Tilt their axes by only one degree and the price will change by several hundred USD. But by looking at them from an overview perspective you can see that we look very close to the bottom. The upper line is the start of the capitulation event and the lower one is the level at which it turns.

Note that looking the lines on this chart, it appears that $3000 will be breached and that the turning point will be in the region of $2500. Perhaps this makes sense and the future will run something like this:

  • BTC drops from whatever price is is at to the support level at $3000, probably pausing again at $3200 on the way down.
  • After an assault on the support layer at $3000, the capitulation event occurs and BTC drops to $2500.
  • BTC bounces off $2500 and settles in the region of $3000-$3200.
  • Bullish attempts are made to increase the price of BTC, but are beaten off initially.
  • After a few months of sideways movement, BTC turns bullish. Properly bullish.
  • The crypto market explodes as investor confidence returns, now backed by the truly enormous backlog of good news that has been ignored as well as by institutional investors.
  • People who originally avoided crypto begin to invest through products designed to make crypto easy for them, making the market even more buoyant.

I think that the capitulation event is near and can happen any day now. I’d like it sooner rather than later please Santa, I’ve been a good Bit Brain this year…

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain


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About Article Author

Bit Brain
Bit Brain

A walking crypto encyclopedia. Honest, Realistic, Opinionated. Futurist, Autodidact, Polymath.

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