Last Thursday alone, oil fell 6% and ended the week 7% down, it’s worst weekly lost in 2019. But one has to keep things in perspective, oil is still up almost 30% year to date.
The combination of a perceived global economic slowdown, higher levels of US oil storage, and rumors of a possible de-escalation of the Iran-US crisis are mitigating the clear and present danger in oil and gas markets
When looking at crude oil markets, the situation on the ground is a clearly pro-OPEC. The speculation about a possible end to the OPEC+ production cuts is largely unfounded. US shale oil should not be considered a savior or swing producer, as it cannot fill the gaps in the current market.
The market is set for a recovery in the coming weeks, especially if markets continue to overreact to the downside. At the same time, geopolitical risks are much higher than the market wants to admit. A possible proxy-war in the Middle East is a real possibility, with Iraq or Yemen as possible targets. Observers should be wary of the current bearish narrative in the global oil market.
The bulls and bears both have compelling arguments on why oil prices are headed down or up. The arguments are so compelling one would think oil is going up and down…at the same time. Because that’s not possible lets go to the charts to get some clues where oil might be headed next.
Late last week price hit the upper portion of the daily demand at $56.75. Since then price has been making high lows on the daily candle, but the momentum is still to the downside. Thus, the immediate levels in play, short term will be the $60 level above and the the bottom of the daily demand zone at $56.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
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