Once Again the FED is Behind the Curve

Once Again the FED is Behind the Curve
December 01 00:06 2018

Remember are few weeks ago when everyone was convinced that 4 hikes were happening in the next 12 months??? Yep, that ship sailed. I have been bearish on rates over the past 8 week saying that they were coming back down to Earth. targeting 2.70ish again. I believe the red line breaks below and when we do eventually get to 2.70ish again, what matters there may be impactful over the next 5-10 years.

If you know me, you know that I like to think abstractly about what may or could happen as well as assess the current situation. So let’s just think a little and go out on a limb. I believe that we have entered into a SECULAR RISING RATE ENVIRONMENT. This is one of the pullbacks along the way but way too many people were calling for 4% on the 10 year for this pullback not to happen (not to mention growth is actually slowing).

Now let’s throw in the fact that this chart below just got EVERYONE bullish again (after having record shorts in April (Yes I said RECORD). This may go on for a very long time but I believe you are about to see the times change as you very well know if you have followed me.

The beginning of the end of the dollar. Rates and Inflation Spike, the Dollar crashes, and crypto enters? Just some food for thought. But right now let’s concentrate on rates getting back to 2.70 so we can get bullish again.



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Just Climbing the Wall of Worry and Picking the Right Time to Get out of the Way. I am a Nuclear Engineer who quit and has studied global and crypto markets for almost a decade.

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