Not So Fast Ari Wald & Byron Wien

Not So Fast Ari Wald & Byron Wien
January 06 02:25 2019

The beginning of the a new year is a time for all (really anybody) Wall Street pundits to make their year end predictions. I have come across many articles over the last several days predicting where the S&P 500 will be and where oil will be and where gold will be and where interest rates will be by year end. Two predictions in particular that I came across were the following:

“We expect a bear market rally to develop over the coming weeks, and we expect a new bull market to develop over the coming months to quarters,” said Ari Wald, a technical analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Wald believes the recent spate of weakness is the cyclical bear market waking up in the midst of a secular bull market and suggested that the selling pressure will soon work itself out.


Although vice chairman of private wealth solutions at Blackstone, Byron Wein got most of his 2018 predictions correct, on CNBC Thursday he predicted a major comeback to new highs for the stock market in 2019.


The concepts of support and resistance is probably technical analysis 101. And trendlines are technical analysis 201. When you combine the role reversal of trendlines, a broken support level will become a future area of resistance or that a previous level of resistance will become support on the higher time frame, it creates a very accurate picture of whats to come.

Below is a long term trend line on the S&P 500 showing what was support become resistance, become support.

But recently, price broke through support.

It doesn’t matter that I disagree with Ari and Byron, the chart suggests the trendline will serve as resistance now and price will take another leg down.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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I'm a retail investor like most of you and learning everyday, but I have been educated and trained to identified the Smart Money on the charts to pick up whatever crumbs they leave behind.

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