Deloitte forecasts a glut of EV’s by 2030

Deloitte forecasts a glut of EV’s by 2030

  • A recently released Deloitte report forecasts ownership cost of battery electric vehicles to match petrol and diesel in the UK by 2021 and globally by 2022.
  • However, they then go on to suggest that manufacturers’ investment in EV capacity will lead to supply outstripping demand so much that they expect a global oversupply of 14m vehicles by 2030.
  • They identify two main external drivers of demand, government polices such as emission standards, ICE bans and subsidies, plus a consumer demand for greener vehicles.
  • Additionally, they state that issues such as driving range, cost premium, charging infrastructure, and time required to charge as being the four key system specific issues to resolve.
  • Of those four they highlight a lack of charging infrastructure and time to charge as being the key barriers, with no obvious solutions on the horizon until the middle of the next decade.

Analysis and Comments

  • I agree with much of the initial analysis, with research indicating that at least for the next few years, subsidies and the desire to purchase green vehicles (early adopters) will continue to drive high rates of growth.
  • One area where I disagree is around battery recharging. I consider that advances in battery charging technology are moving much faster than the Deloitte report suggests.
  • I read analysis which indicates that larger DC chargers (150KW and above) will quickly become viable as stand-alone commercial businesses – with companies like Fortum already pushing hard in this space.
  • When added to measures such as the schemes to add street-side AC recharging systems ( & Pod Point – no driveway no problem), the options for vehicle recharging for hard to reach groups such as those with no off street parking will increase.
  • In addition, new vehicles planned for release in late 2019 & early 2020 such as the VW ID range Cleantechnica preview of VW ID specs suggest that a target of an 80% recharge in only 30 min will be achievable (using fast chargers).
  • This is an aspect of EV uptake that I think is poorly understood

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