IEA Predicts 250 Million EVs On The Road By 2030

IEA Predicts 250 Million EVs On The Road By 2030 (CleanTechnica)

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) has doubled its forecasts for the number of EVs on the road globally to 250m by 2030 (up from 125m).
• This forecast assumes that the 25 nations that are part of the Clean Energy Ministerial EV30@30 achieve their commitments, and would translate to EV sales of 43m by 2030.   
• The report looks at key areas, including “electric vehicle and charging infrastructure deployment, ownership cost, energy use, carbon dioxide emissions, and battery material demand.”

Analysis & Comments

• Market forecasts for EV adoption continue to rise. Some investors are expecting EV sales to increase to 7.9m by 2023 and 28m by 2028. This is based on plans for charging infrastructure roll out, electrification programs by auto OEMs, capacity additions by cell manufacturers, and battery pack cost reduction.
• Electrification of the transportation sector is a major risk for long term oil demand. However, the risk posed by the electrification of passenger cars, while important, will take time to materialise.
• The real risk in our lies in the electrification of commercial vehicles (and off-road vehicles). Commercial vehicles are responsible for more than 50% of oil demand in road transportation, despite representing only 25% of vehicles on the road.
• The truck sector was responsible for 40% of the growth in global oil demand.