Cryptocurrencies

A Bounce is not just a bounce

BTC took a big dip less than a day ago. Unlike other recent dips, it didn’t stay there for long…

The recent BTC dip was significant in size: A drop from around $3894 to $3742 (a $152 difference – BitMex prices) within an hour is a relatively major drop. On any other day, a 3.9% drop in BTC price would be a considered a bad day. This day was different.

Whereas the norm for BTC is to stay at the new level after a sudden price drop or rise, BTC started recovering instantly: regaining and then passing the starting level (of the drop) a mere 9 hours later. The price recovery was also gradual in nature – significant in itself. 

The chart below serves only as a reference, I’m not going to be using any TA today.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

Analysis:

BTC volume grows ever stronger. I have been posting this fact all over blog posts around the internet (my own included), especially recently:

From https://trybe.one/btc-08-march/
From https://trybe.one/crypto-return-of-the-contrarian-indicator-markets/
From https://trybe.one/buy-crypto-now-like-this/

Increased volume means increased interest in BTC (and by extension – crypto in general). I believe that the recovery from the recent price dip shows the same thing. People are not only interested in BTC, they are actively trading it. 

When price does happen to drop (let’s say a whale meets a target price and dumps a stack of BTC), the price doesn’t tank and create FUD. What happens instead is that the market takes it as an opportunity to buy. This tells me that there is a fundamental change in market mentality – it has turned positive.

The gradual upwards slope after the recent drop shows that buying was organic and was not a large market manipulation move on the part of yet another whale. People genuinely want to buy Bitcoin when it drops in price.

This means that faith has been restored in BTC as a long-term store of value; people are becoming bullish on it again and will buy any cheap Bitcoin.

I must admit that this is happening even sooner than I had expected, I predicted a July resurgence of crypto bullishness, but at this rate it could be earlier than that. As I said a few days back, I’m aiming to finish my crypto buys (with fiat) before the end of May this year. If I continue to get indications like this, I may have to accelerate up my buying schedule.

For now I still believe the market to be moving sideways. This one recovery is not a strong indicator to the contrary, at least not on its own. I’ll keep watching the market carefully for similar signs, being very wary of premature hype. For now my “crypto will turn bullish in Q3 of 2019” forecast still stands – I’ll be sure to inform you if I change my mind.

Invest wisely and remember to DYOR.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“By this means (fractional reserve banking) government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft.”

~ John Maynard Keynes

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