Bitcoin 08 July

Perhaps you saw on yesterday when I posted on Twitter:

It was always the idea to blog about Bitcoin today, but Bitcoin was too fast for me:

While that movement has already begun, I’m going to write about it anyway, I guess I’ll just have to type faster than usual…

I am expecting moves in the $1000 (or greater) region by tomorrow.

BTC has been in a (somewhat messy) bullish converging triangle for roughly the last 10 days. The dominant BTC movement at the moment is a rise, and so this “sideways phase” is probably coming to an end.

Thanks to an “over-hyped” phase, followed by an “over-corrected” phase, this triangle is somewhat difficult to spot – fortunately you have me to spot it for you. ?

The rest is rather simple, as I said earlier, I expect a large price movement. This is to be expected after a period of sideways movement – especially when a converging triangle is in play.

I believe this will either be in the form of a direct price rise, or as a dip down to $10500, followed by a large price rise. The upwards break out of the triangle is an argument in favour of the former scenario: it’s a bullish breakout which will probably run to $12850 and possibly beyond that. The median price line (which is over three months old) is at $12850, so that would be a good place to stop, but momentum may carry it through to the next diagonal Fib at $13700 – or even higher if “over-hype” kicks in again.

The other scenario is that BTC first dips to support and then climbs. That support is the bottom of the diagonal Fib levels – the 0.0 Level – and is defined by the 10 June dip as well as by the over-correction dip of a week ago (which you may recall me calling exactly right – based on these same Fib levels). In support of another dip is the fact that volume has been decreasing over the last five days, though I don’t consider this to be as important as it would appear. I assess that volume also became “over-hyped” at the time of the $13800 price spike in late June and has taken a while to normalise after that. Volume also continues to far exceed the levels of the 2017 bull run, so I think a dip is the more unlikely scenario.

If BTC does dip then the support should catch it at about $10500 before slingshotting it back up towards $12850 and beyond.

I allocate the following probabilities to future scenarios:

  • BTC rises to $12850 and above directly – 45%
  • BTC dips to $10500 and then rises – 30%
  • BTC continues sideways – 10%
  • Something else – 15%

That’s all for now, let be hit the “Publish” button before everything changes or becomes outdated!

Yours in crypto
Bit Brain

Tweets from
Charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

Bit Brain recommends:

Crypto Exchanges:

Related posts

Bitcoin Testing Major Support! Analysis + Answering Your Questions


BITCOIN: uncertainty…


Two Minute Crypto: The King – Are You A Rebel? (Part 2 of 3)


Get involved!


No comments yet
Skip to toolbar