Bitcoin – 17 July

This is a quick follow-up to my previous BTC post, a post which has since be rendered largely obsolete and epically wrong.

Since the publication of my epically wrong post, Bitcoin has moved around a little bit, enabling me to tweak some of that epic wrongness into something more correct and useful.

Since that post a week and a half ago, we have been provided us with three new price points from which to work: low points on 6 and 16 July, and a high point on 8 July. Combined with previous data, we are now able to construct a fairly reliable-looking converging triangle.

Just a reminder: a converging triangle pattern such as this one is historically about 70% reliable. It indicates the possibility of an imminent breakout, though without a horizontal base or top, and without a clear previous trend direction, this particular triangle does not indicate whether that breakdown will be positive or negative.

The more imaginative among you may increase the chart time-frame to weeks and conclude that this triangle is actually also a bull flag. That’s not technically “wrong” per se, but it’s too unreliable – too much of a coin toss for me to include it as an official part of this analysis.

Significantly, $9000 is still acting as “weak psychological support”, as seen in the epically wrong post. Being weak, one must question the usefulness of such “support”.

Without trying to make excuses for the wrongness of the epically wrong post, I still think that its main point: that BTC will soon drop, is valid. Obviously I got the timing for that wrong, but not much has changed fundamentally since I made that call, so I’m still inclined to believe that it is correct. What the new converging triangle does is to allows us to better gauge the time-frame of such a drop.

The time-frame suggested by the triangle is that the drop will occur sometime between midnight tonight (UTC) and early on the morning of 23 July – so roughly speaking: “between now and next Thursday”.

Note that a negative breakout direction is NOT assured, such a possibility is only slightly more likely than a positive one, maybe 5% more likely. The negative direction is based mainly on the continued lack of trading volume, which has consolidated at a low level since I wrote my previous BTC post.

That’s all, enjoy your weekend (as much as you can under the circumstances). Take care.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first” 

~ Mark Twain

“Crypto does not require institutional investment to succeed; institutions require crypto investments to remain successful” 

~ Bit Brain

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