After a general climb of nearly eight weeks, Bitcoin has finally reached the “GO / NO GO” point.
A “GO” situation means that BTC will break free from the current pattern – a converging triangle – and reach new 2019 highs. This would be the real beginning of the next bull market.
A “NO GO” situation means that BTC will bounce off resistance in the $4150 to $4200 region and return to lower levels of between $3720 and $3600.
On the charts below, the white lines are the upper and lower borders of the tapering triangle. The yellow lines are previous price movements and the dotted yellow lines are predicted price movements.
By zooming in we can see that the upper limit of the converging triangle has almost been reached. This means that either a bounce or a breakout is imminent.
I do not consider a breakout likely at this stage, I believe it still too early. It’s not impossible, but I only allocate a probability of less than 20% to a breakout scenario.
Looking at the medium-term picture, you can see where I consider breakouts to be more likely – unchanged from previous predictions of mine. This chart also shows the full converging triangle and the major recent support level at $3600.
I still think that the breakout will happen in the third quarter of 2019 (or very late second quarter), and I allocate a probability of 60% to that scenario.
BTC is climbing well and steadily, and while certainly not impossible, I don’t think that such a long, positive price movement can be sustained without some level of FUD setting in (not yet anyway):
In the long-term, BTC is climbing slightly faster than it should, reinforcing the idea that it will have to dip again before it can rise.
The thin red line below is the approximate linear path that BTC should follow, though the curved blue line is a more realistic for it in the medium-term.
If BTC breaks and sustains a price level of above $4400 or greater, then I will consider a breakout to have occurred and will consider quickly increasing my BTC position with fiat. If BTC drops in price I will consider buying once it drops below $3750.
Either way I’m buying, because (strangely enough), both of those situations can be considered a win for crypto buyers. With long-term projections looking solid and getting more positive by the day, this really does seem to be the prime time for buying crypto. Volume is unprecedented and growing, it also has a predictable stability to it which is something that the 2017 bull market could not boast. that stable and growing volume should also make the upcoming bull market a very large one.
I’m very positive about the crypto space and am excited for the rest of 2019 (not to mention 2020!). I strongly suggest not putting off your buys until the second half of the year. I think we will be seeing a lot of “Moon!” and “Lambo!” comments on crypto forums in the near future.
All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView
Yours in crypto
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“By this means (fractional reserve banking) government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft.”
~ John Maynard Keynes