I’ve been shopping (again). I like to publish these posts so that you can see if I follow my own advice or not.
This is a rather interesting shopping excursion…
Funding the buys:
I finally have some fiat available for crypto, but as is said in “BTC – Trade the channel” it’s all still sitting on an exchange locked up in buy orders – none of which have triggered yet. Thank you very much recent BTC price spike.
I have no intention of raising the prices of my BTC offers. Yes I am DCAing back into BTC, but it’s a modified DCA – a combination of DCA, Value Averaging and Value Investing– perhaps I should explain that in a post of its own, it will take too long to do it here.
With fiat out of the equation, I once again need to buy crypto with crypto. Big question number 1 is always: “what to sell?”. I wish that I had some BTT (BitTorrent Token), I would sell that in a heartbeat (as I explained in my post about BTT and ICOs – I believe it to be overpriced). I have to admit that I considered selling BNB (Binance Coin), but only for a moment. The BNB chart has been very positive for some time now, it’s climbed its way up into the top ten, passing my beloved NEO along the way! Be that as it may, I have fundamental reasons for believing that BNB has still got much climbing to do. It may even continue to climb all the way to the beginning of the next bull run, at which stage it will just climb some more! BNB is not a sell for me right now.
But Tron is another matter. Tron (TRX) has climbed a lot this year. It’s been the star of several “Best Top 10 Market Cap Performer of 2019” articles which I have come of the Tron hype is linked to the BTT across – and rightly so. BUT: I don’t see a fundamental reason which justifies that performance. It is my belief that much of the recent TRX hype has to do with the extreme BTT hype (once again, see this post). The TRX chart is not a pretty one to a TRX hodler or buyer. The price of TRX relative to BTC is very high, especially considering the state of the market and the relative performance of other coins.
Compare that to another crypto such as NEO:
Below is a combined chart of market caps of the TRX and NEO over the last year:
Fortunately for me I did stock up a little on TRX last year, back when it was relatively cheap. I like my TRX, and I don’t want t lose it. I also like being diversified and hedging my bets. Having said that, I am 95% certain that TRX will lose considerable ground to BTC in the months ahead. With all of this in mind, I made the decision to sell 57% of my TRX holdings. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how I funded this shopping trip.
What’s in the cart?
- Virtual coins
Virtual coins? That’s a new one!
Indeed. While I considered it a good time to sell TRX, I did not consider it a good time to buy altcoins. As I’ve told you, I’m expecting a small drop in crypto prices within the next few days. This means that alts will lose out to BTC thanks to Bit Brain’s Crypto Supercharger Effect. My plan is simply to hold BTC until it gets to a lower price, and then to convert in into alts. For now those alts remain un-bought “virtual coins” which I shall buy soon when the time is right.
I should hold Tether (or another of the hundreds of stable coins which have recently taken to littering the markets with their presence). That would be the smart move. I’m not going to Tether because I never do. I’d rather keep the FOMO away by holding BTC in case I am wrong about it dropping. Also, I never have trusted Tether 100% – though that is mainly paranoia on my part. Please note: not going to Tether/fiat is not a wise move and it is not what I would recommend to anyone else at this time – let me be stupid on my own.
Buying alts once BTC drops lower does carry some risk. The risk is that BTC will drop lower still and thanks to my Supercharger Effect (once again), the alts will lose more than what BTC does. But, as I have explained at length in numerous posts since mid December – I do not think that we will see another big crypto price drop. Even if we do, I don’t think it will be a massive one (as I discussed two days ago).
What remains to be said in this post is what I intend to buy when BTC has dropped in price again. So as not to keep you in suspense:
A coin I hope to pick up for around $7 apiece, not bad for coins which were once worth $196. NEO remains the epitomy of undervalued yet brilliant cryptocurrencies.
Looking at the charts today I’m tempted to FOMO-buy in right now.
With the way it is climbing I should just buy BNB now. It may drop with BTC when price drops, it may not. Because I want BNB I sold my TRX on Binance. So as not to over-complicate things or attract extra fees, I am only buying coins avaiable on Binance in this buying round.
Under-valued and regularly overlooked. Kyber is widely used, a solid token – and like NEO – pathetically cheap for what you get. I have a very small amount of it. I want more.
So as you can see, this round of shopping is not quite done yet. I have to trust in my TA and wait for the right time to switch BTC into alts. I’ll probably have a restless night or two! 😕
Yours in crypto
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“By this means (fractional reserve banking) government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft.”
~ John Maynard Keynes