And is there a land of milk and honey on the other side?
BTC is back on the warpath, pushing to new 2019 ATHs over the last two days. Yes it’s retracing now, but anyone with half a brain cell knows that that is only temporary.
This is the major price target level for BTC at the moment:
We have now encountered the last meaningful resistance on our way back up to $6000+ levels. This resistance level is the same support level that offered us a small pause during the drop from $6000 to below $4000 in November 2018.
Both normal Fib levels and diagonal Fib levels are showing a clear run upwards after this resistance level has been broken.
Normal Fib Levels:
There is nothing much new to what I have said here so far, this is just all confirmation of things I have said before. In other words, we are still on track.
In case you don’t read my blog often (naughty, naughty!) here is a brief summary of the BTC future which I foresee: BTC rises in price to about $6200 and bounces off resistance. BTC heads lower after the bounce, consolidates, and retries to break the $6200 level. This repeats until the level is broken and BTC can consolidate above $6k. Once this finally happens, the proper bull run can begin. Something like this:
You can read my older but more complete analysis of this situation and process here: “Bitcoin – 10 April”.
Amendments to my previous thoughts:
The cryptocurrency environment is a dynamic one; my analysis of the situation changes slowly over time as new information becomes available. Since my 10 April post I have changed my mind on some matters. Specifically:
- I think that after BTC bounces off the $6200 level and drops in price, it may drop lower than the $5000 bottom which I previously predicted. This was more a measuring/calculation error on my part than anything else. As a psychological level $5k may well be where it stops, depending on market herd mentality at the time, but don’t be surprised if it drops to just above $4000, which I consider more likely. My apologies for the incorrect calculation of the previous estimate.
- IMPORTANT! I have speculated several times in the past few months that the next major bull run may differ from those of the past. I said that altcoins may lead BTC and outrun it during the initial climb, much as they have been doing in most recent climbs. But now that the market as a whole is turning bullish and volume is far higher than before, we can gauge a more accurate representation of market sentiment. More recent BTC climbs have shown that BTC fully intends to outrun the alts again during its next climb. This is not yet confirmed, but is looking increasingly likely. The “Red Sea” in this post title refers to the sea of red altcoins seen on coinmarketcap during the most recent BTC climb. Even my strongest coins like BNB and NEO were decimated while BTC surged ahead. I’m not saying you should trade all your alts in, but I am suggesting that you don’t sell any BTC right now. For my part I boosted the BTC percentage of my portfolio to cover this eventuality with fiat buys earlier in the year (as you can see in my previous two “Shopping Cart” posts).
It’s good to see a bullish looking market again. It will be even better to see a proper bull run.
This morning I was thinking about trading some of my NEO for BTC. But then I remembered that this is a long-term game and that short-term panic is not the way to trade. I always comfort myself by having faith in my long-term crypto plan and in the coins I hold. If you have done your due diligence before buying your coins, then you have nothing to fear, so long as you are sufficiently diversified. Sit back, put your feet up and crack open a beer – your portfolio will take care of itself.
Cheerio, I’m off to get a beer.
Yours in crypto
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“By this means (fractional reserve banking) government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft.”
~ John Maynard Keynes