Opportunity is a haughty goddess who wastes no time with those who are unprepared.George S. Clason
No TA expertize is required to see that the short-term chart is clearly bearish. The general consensus seems to be a drop to 8.5k, filling the CME gap, or roughly 7.5k, resting on the 200 day EMA. Many analysts also point out the likelihood of the market front running this decline and therefore lessening it or an overshoot briefly dropping price well below the 200 EMA.
The majority of analysts see a quick rebound from these levels an analysis I myself share.
As a consequence, I have laddered buys on BTC at 8.8/8.6/8.4/7.8/7.6/7.4/7.2 and 6.8 (largest entry).
These are all small buys representing in total 30% of my currently allocated new capital for BTC.
However, the majority of my investable capital remains side-lined and this is why.
Hunting the Outlier Opportunity
If BTC hasn’t in fact bottomed-out – a decline to 1.5k is still in play.
Is this likely -no.
Is this off the table – no.
Why 1.5k – well this is simply a reference point – lower than the previous low of 3.1k is my point of focus.
A 1.5k BTC would constitute, in my opinion, an unlikely to be revisited entry point opportunity. No doubt should the price collapse to such levels the doomsayers will be legion – all is lost will be the dominant narrative and that narrative will be completely wrong.
Now do your own research here but from the multi-year research I’ve conducted, BTC would in no way be fundamentally undermined by a drop to sub 2k. Of course, some miners would shut up shop. The network’s hash power would almost certainly decline and steeply so. Nonetheless, the fundamental value proposition of BTC would remain undiminished.
So 2k or Nothing?
In terms of my own portfolio – I have decided to ladder in increasingly large positions at these levels
5.6k / 4.6k / 3.6k / 2.6k / 1.6k
None of these orders are yet on an exchange but should price break 7.5k then they will be placed.
These are all binary outcome positions – there is no stop-loss.
The investment horizon is 10 years or more.
Should price collapse to this area what I won’t be doing is looking to the mainstream media or Telegram or Twitter for guidance.
Bitcoin’s long-term price outlook depends on none of those sources nor is it entirely bounded by the chart.
A new mechanism to store wealth offers an ROI of unknown magnitude and given its short trading history charts can only take you so far in analyzing BTC. For that, you need to be willing to assess/research the fundamentals of the project and draw your own conclusions once you’ve done so.
What About Missing the Boat?
Well, as I’ve been accumulating Bitcoin for the last 8 months – this isn’t relevant.
If you haven’t bought any BTC to date – waiting on 1.5k is a low probability outcome.
In addition, I purchase BTC every week – dollar-cost averaging greatly simplifies the process of accumulating BTC.
When Does this Outlier Hypothesis Become Irrelevant?
An open and close above 13.8k on the weekly chart closes the book on this outlier proposition and would see me looking to enter capital on substantial dips into the 10k zone.
So This Guy is Saying BTC is Going to Fall to 1.5k?
No – not at all – this is an outlier proposition but one which is still worth planning for because:
A) It might offer an excellent accumulation opportunity.
B) If you haven’t entertained the idea that BTC may fall to this level – you are very likely to panic were it to do so. Panic is a terrible investment partner.
C) Focusing on lower-entry point outlier opportunities highlights the very real risk involved in investing in crypto.
It’s your money – you worked for it – it was hard to acquire – don’t let the greedy monkey inside your head convince you to ‘over-invest’ in BTC or any crypto. Take your time and research Bitcoin and the market in general before you deploy any capital Only after a period of learning, and reflection should you purchase crypto. Always remember – high risk is not a concept – there is a high percentage chance of you losing everything you invest.