Rates have been getting absolutely smoked on these tariffs and the woes. The rates hikes HAVE BEEN off the table and are now 100% for the foreseeable future. In fact we may see a cut soon. This has caught me a little by surprise. After nailing the “generational bottom” in 2016 and calling the rip to 3.0+, then calling the move back until 2.5-2.6, I really thought that we would stop going down here.
So far, this has not been the case. 2.14 is heading back towards levels not seen since Q3 of 2017. And guess what? This is not the bottom. Two much downward momentum here that the lows will likely need to be tested over time before the secular trend continues up (is my thesis). I am wrong for now….Time will tell.