Sunset and evening star,
And one clear call for me!
And may there be no moaning of the bar,
When I put out to sea,
Crossing the Bar ~ Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Tennyson was speaking about death in this famous poem. Today I’m going to take a more positive spin on “Crossing the Bar”; this post is about life – Platinum coming back to life!
Almost a month ago I published a post titled “Time to buy Platinum?”, in which I made it fairly clear that I believed it was indeed time to buy. In fact: so good was my post, that it convinced me to go out pick up a little Platinum of my own the very next day!
I published a few charts in that post, the most significant of which was probably this one:
As I said then: Platinum is near a very well established base level and its price movement is right at the apex of a tapering triangle. In TA terms this speaks of an imminent breakout. I then gave reasons why I believed it would break upwards when it did break out.
Obviously nothing has changed in the majority of that triangle since then. But right up at the tip, during the last month or so, things are getting very interesting!
Platinum is now up against the top border of that triangle, and by “now” I mean “right now today”.
It has moved rapidly upwards in price for five consecutive days, particularly rapidly in the last three days (today included). I believe that there is a very real possibility that Platinum is about to “Cross the Bar”.
If it does so, then this will be extremely significant. Allowing a small margin for error, we would obviously first have to confirm the “crossing”. I would consider reaching $900 positive confirmation that “the bar” has been well and truly crossed. That would signify the end of a 10-year-old bearish Platinum price movement, and by extension, open the floodgates for a Platinum price recovery (it has lost major ground to Gold in the last 10 years). I believe that this could well mean that Platinum races back up to its rightful place at Gold’s side – or perhaps even slightly higher than Gold (as those of us with a few years on our side will remember: that is where Platinum always used to reside).
If Platinum fails to break out now, then it’s not the end of the world by any means – it would probably just mean one final visit to the $750 level before rising up and breaking out after that.
But wait: it gets a little better still: – Gold, the benchmark which I foresee Platinum returning to, is also nearing a breakout point! It’s not as close as Platinum is in TA terms, but it is already in the zone where a breakout can occur during any major positive price movement. A mere $50 increase in Gold price from its current level would see it break free of a converging triangle which it has been in since 2013 / 2014 (depending on your interpretation of the triangle). The Gold triangle is indicated on the chart below:
With the stock markets of the world balancing precariously between breaking through resistance, or bouncing off it and plunging downwards again, chances of precious metals being used as a safe haven and breaking out become a reality (especially Gold). This all depends on how much investors have learnt since the 2008 market crash and whether they will be required to liquidate their positions in precious metals to cover failing investments elsewhere, or whether they have been a bit smarter this time and are able to shift quickly into the relative stability of precious metals.
It could also been a boon for cryptocurrencies – the safe havens of the future. Crypto is now ready and willing to accept safe haven money and to prove itself as a secure store of value, probably with a better ROI than Gold.
Things are getting interesting. I’ve completed my precious metals buying (physical Gold, Platinum and Silver as well as Gold and Platinum shares – diversification is king) and I am busy with more crypto buying as of last month, aiming to be finished by the end of May at the latest. I strongly suggest that everybody takes a good, hard, HOLISTIC look at the major markets and makes unbiased, rational decisions accordingly. Everyone is different and has their own needs, risk profiles, capital available for investment and market knowledge. You need to do what is best for you – just don’t wait until it is too late!
Yours in crypto
Feature image from United States Mint [Public domain]
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“By this means (fractional reserve banking) government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft.”
~ John Maynard Keynes