For the fourth month in a row, BTC has closed with a green monthly candle. Each candle closing stronger than the last. We are now closer to the previous all-time high (roughly 128%) than the bottom (approximately 170%).
So are we due a Pullback?
Of course we are. Are we guaranteed to get one in the coming weeks? No, not at all even above typical market unpredictability.
Why not? All the typical TA indicators scream – correction.
For myself, 2 current factors serve to lessen the likelihood of an imminent (25-40% correction) which by the way I would love to see.
Institutional Money (Finally)
The possible entry of institutional money into crypto in the next 4-6 weeks could put off any correction for some time. Fidelity is ready to roll – 7 trillion dollars under management even a trickle in BTC would be very price supportive. As far as I can tell their goal is to introduce BTC to their clients as a possible investment – a long term hold/hedge. Bakkt (though delayed again and again) and others are due to follow.
Now, we’ve heard all this before, ‘the institutions are coming’ is a well-worn cry but we can only work with the information to hand and that information states institutions are about to enter the market.
An Unfolding Trade Dispute
An escalating trade spat between the world’s two largest economies may be short-term BTC supportive.
Sure, they (Xi Jinping and Trump) could fall back into brotherly love tomorrow – they have both pivoted on such issues in the past and no doubt, at some point, will do so in relation to trade. However, 2020 US elections may perhaps delay such an outcome.
What if BTC falls 40% in a matter of days?
What of it? It’s up 170% off its recent low – 40% would simply be a correction and, in my opinion, a great opportunity to buy. Check out this article to see my thoughts on the current Win Win BTC seems to offer.
Well, I’m looking to buy the dip. And dollar cost averaging once a week while I wait on it. What I’m not doing is wasting any energy on fretting a pullback which is certainly on the cards whether now or further down the track. The longer we run up the steeper the eventual correction may be.
Do your own research – no-one cares for your capital like you do. Research the market, be critical, build a rounded perspective and then act.