Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin on a Long-Term View – Deja Vu?

With bitcoin flying around again one likely wonders – where will it go next?  Best way to get perspective on that is to sometimes take a step back in time.  As in the time frame you are looking at to clear the noise and see some obvious price points.

We do this by looking at the weekly chart rather than the daily.  Each candle represents a week’s worth of time and allows us to see a big picture and the levels where price reversed or bounced in the past over the course of a day or days.

Looking at the chart at first I get a little freaked out because the past three months look very similar to the Sept-Nov period of 2017 just before price went parabolic in December.

Price Deja Vu?

I’d be surprised if price acts the same as it did on that run….as in the odds if it going parabolic again are likely less but anything can happen.   We are about at that point and three more big green weekly candles in a row would mimic that move and take us above 20K.

My experience tells me it just won’t play out that way.  Institutions are likely pushing the majority of this move and all the average joe’s that jumped in last time are not buying, they are bag holding waiting to get back to even.

What is the price target then?

Looking at the chart you can see we have 11,500 area as a prior top on the weekly chart.  That would be the next upside price target, which it got very close to earlier today topping out at 11,200.

If price wants to get crazy then 14,000 is the next target after 11,500.

As for the downside if a pullback occurs, the 9600-9500 could become support being that it was a prior top.  Otherwise the mid 8,000s would act as a clear support level.

I don’t know what kind of pullback we will get and when, but I can guarantee one thing – we will get one at some point.  How high price goes before it occurs is anyone’s guess.

Enjoy the ride and be sure to book some profits from time to time.

 

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