Cryptocurrencies Strategy

BITCOIN: That jump of yesterday has been good but…

…obviously still not sufficient.

Frankly, I have doubts about if yesterday’s rise can be ascribed in any Elliot-wave count actually…but it can, of course…

First Option: EXTENDED FIRST WAVE

Let’s say that BITCOIN has traced an EXTENDED FIRST WAVE.

In this case, the first wave is the longest wave in 5-wave cycle upwards, it is completed and now is tracing the second wave, a corrective one.

We know that, in EW terms, under this scenario, the third wave cannot be longer than the first but neither can be the shortest wave. And so, the 5th and last wave upwards MUST be the shortest one. As a consequence, taking known supports we may draft the following path:

Remember, the time axis is uncertain, I could have sketched the 5 waves more or less inclined, the results would be more or less similar.

Second Option: Regular EW-count

Imagine, that the volume keeps increasing, 2 days ago we were stuck permanently at 5b$, now we are moving 6.1b$… let’s be positive and think we are really in front of a “natural” growth in a reversal condition.

In this case, taking as a basis the length of the first wave, the Third must be, usually 1.618 times the length of the 1st wave and, conservatively, I would bet for a short 5th…

Third Option, and the most bullish… a 3rd or a 5th extended waves :-):

  • Extended 3rd Wave:
  • Extended 5th Wave:

Last option: The “Falling Wedge” is longer and still on play

After this last jump up we are consolidating. It may occur that from this level the price will fall again abruptly so, the 11 billion $ just entered would disappear again in another “strategical” sell of the whales…

In this case, a new Falling Wedge is appearing.

We can easily see BITCOIN falling again to the 3200 USD on which we may see another test of the already touched support line in blue.

Summary:

After the current “consolidation” the direction of the movement will show us in which scenario we are.

  • If down then the last option would be on play and so, a possible test of the support may happen at 3200 USD
  • If up we have three options, the first and the second maybe confirming a long accumulation period of time with the prices mainly “playing” around 4000 USD. The third would bring us very close to the 200DMA in the daily chart which would mean, if BTC crosses that line a confirmation of the Reversal trend (Target prices between 4700 and 5100 USD)

@toofasteddie

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