Forex

The US Dollar Is Stuck In The Mud

This past Saturday, Trump spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference in National Harbor, Maryland.  One of the topics of discussion was the US dollar.  Trump hinted at wanting a weaker US dollar.  I say hinted because he said he wants a strong dollar, but not at the sacrifice of US business being hurt when doing business abroad.

I recently read an article on FXStreet.com about the US dollar and one of their analysts had the following to say:

We view that the greenback is likely to stay strong due to stronger US treasury yields and weaker global yields. I.e. the dollar is the beneficiary of weak global growth. We note that this is not the first time that President Trump has tried to talk down the dollar but as long as the US economy remains strong on a relative basis, the greenback is likely to outperform.

Source

I do think over time, the US dollar will get weaker.  With the Feds putting interest rates on pause and the US economy slowing down, logically the dollar will head lower.  But also from a technical standpoint, on a macro scale, the monthly chart the US dollar has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows.

And on the weekly charts, the next freshest weekly supply is just right above, but the freshest weekly demand is a lot further down.

NOTE: fresh means price has not reached yet.

However, we won’t know really where the US dollar is heading next, until the breaks out of its immediate range, which should be soon because the immediate and current weekly supply and demand zone is getting weaker and weaker, meaning the remaining unfilled buy and seller orders are getting filled and price will eventually seek the next stack of buy/sell orders.

Trump can definitely can help get the US dollar at out its current range….just by one of his twits. Here’s a couple of past twits as examples that could cause the US dollar to get excited.

But on a serious note, the non-farm payroll report tomorrow morning might be the catalyst to get things rolling.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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