The Cruise Liners Are My Consumer Price Index

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. operates as a cruise company. The company operates cruises under the Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Azamara Club Cruises, and Silversea Cruises brands. The Royal Caribbean International brand provides itineraries to destinations worldwide, including Alaska, Asia, Australia, Bahamas, Bermuda, Canada, the Caribbean, Europe, the Panama Canal, and New Zealand with cruise lengths that range from 2 to 23 nights.

Shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises closed the day on Wednesday almost 7% toward a seven month high after reporting first-quarter earnings that beat expectation.  Net income rose to $249.7 million, or $1.19 a share, from $218.7 million, or $1.02 a share, in the same period a year ago. Total revenue rose 20.3% to $2.44 billion which included a 19.9% growth in passenger ticket revenue to $1.71 billion and a 21.2% rise in onboard and other revenue to $729.8 million.  But the cream on the top was when the company announced was their full-year earnings guidance of $9.65 to $9.85 per share.

A Consumer Price Index measures changes in the price level of market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.  The index is another way of saying do people have money to spend.


Well, I use the cruise ships as my personal consumer price index.  No matter what people will buy toothpaste and toilet paper and food.  But if their funds are limited, they won’t be going on cruises.  And since consumers are responsible for about 66% of a countries GDP,  the cruise liners are a great gauge on the economy and even where the Equity Markets are heading next.

As I mentioned earlier, price are near a seven month high,

resulting in a triple top forming.  A triple top pattern is a type of chart pattern used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of an uptrend.  I’m not suggesting to short price, but I will be monitoring price for reversals on a smaller timeframes if price approaches the retested supply zone.

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