I swear that date is coincidental – though I’ll be that first to admit that it is conveniently useful!
First things first
I’m laying my bull flag theory to rest. It was nice while it lasted, but that “flag” has now become far too long, too tapered and too low down relative to the “flagpole” which preceded it. Ergo – it isn’t a bull flag. This means that the post “BTC 29 Jan – still on track” is now invalid.
BTC may have been on track, but now it’s derailed. It is still in the same channel (previously called the “flag”) – but it’s clearly no longer forming a continuation pattern and you can’t trade it as one. Sorry.
Having decided that the flag concept was well and truly dead, I started looking for the next most likely strong indicator of future events. 2019 is still a very tricky read for crypto TA, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Zooming out (always a good idea when in doubt), I noticed what looked like a time-based pattern.
I’ve tried time based patterns on crypto charts before. TradingView offers time analysis tools called Cyclic Lines as well as Time Cycles. They measure equal, consecutive time periods. I don’t find them useful for crypto – not at all. This is probably because crypto markets never close and are far less susceptible to the opening and closing effects of the various markets around the globe. Those tools look like this (I have displayed both together):
There is a more promising looking tool called “Fib Time Zone”, but, though I have tried to use it many times and in many ways, I have never managed to get anything useful out of it – it just doesn’t line up with the charts very well.
Sitting this morning, looking at my charts, I was sure that I was seeing a time based pattern. I put the Fib Time Zones on it and tried them yet again – nothing. So I switched tools and tried something else: Fib Speed Resistance Arcs – and they worked!
It sounds silly, they both do similar things. The difference is that the arcs show more points than the Fib Lines do. Technically you could scale the Fib lines smaller and use them over shorter periods, but they become very cumbersome and difficult to work with, the slightest movement of the mouse sends the lines flying inwards or outwards – whereas the arcs scale up and down fairly smoothly.
With those background details out of the way, let me show you what I found:
Standby for 4 July:
I have drawn thin white vertical lines at the end of each Fib period. Starting from the first peak after the 2017 BTC ATH. The Fib levels line up with all the biggest peaks and troughs on the chart. It’s what I’ve been looking for for months!
There is a very significant number in the Fibonacci sequence: 1.618. It was discovered by ancient Greeks who studied it and used it in just about everything: mathematics, construction, art… We still use it today; it’s a naturally pleasing ratio. Look at things like the shape of books, windows, the shape of the room you’re in, posters, a deck of cards – even music. What’s more this ratio occurs naturally too: in flowers, shells, the distance from your shoulder to your finger tip vs the distance from your elbow to your finger tip, everywhere!
It’s therefore no surprise that this ratio, known as the Golden Ratio, plays a large role in TA. Guess where the major November 2018 crash from $6k down to $3k happened? – at the 1.618 ratio.
There is very strong evidence in TA that the Fib levels work. Not only that – having the golden ratio fall on the major crash strongly suggests that I have aligned the ratios correctly – and that gives them prediction value!
Looking at the chart above you can see that the next big event (according to the Fib ratios) is on 4 July 2019. Okay, some conditions:
- A little flexibility is allowed for, a few days either way. TA is as much art as it is science.
- I don’t know if this will be a peak or a trough, or perhaps even the start of another big event (like the drop down to $3k was).
- It’s not to say that nothing significant will happen between now and then.
What I think this may be is the start of the bullish climb. I say this because on Monday I stated that:
“Therefore metadata based on my own ideas indicates a late Q2/early Q3 return of the bulls. “
That was derived by completely different methods and has nothing to do with Fibonacci at all. You can read how I got to those dates in this post: “Word on the street is…”
I’m always happy when I can verify something in multiple ways, is greatly increases the chance that it is right.
Well there you have it Bit Brainians, I’ve said what I came here to say. I only discovered this today so it may still need a little fine tuning, but it does look pretty well aligned and I am happy with what I see. You now know as much about BTC’s medium-term future as I do.
I’m going to go ahead and say that I think that it is likely that the start of July will signal the return of the bulls. Allowing for a few weeks margin of error, I’ll give that a probability of 50% – very high considering that: a) it’s crypto, b) I’m saying what the event will be, c) I’m putting a time to it and d) it’s still five months away. Do you think I’m right?
Yours in Fib predicted crypto
“The secret to success: find out where people are going and get there first”
~ Mark Twain
“By this means (fractional reserve banking) government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft.”
~ John Maynard Keynes