Currency Analysis Report 5-8-19…More Downside Risk On Kiwi Too

In March Governor Adrian Orr hinted at a easing bias. In an interview with Bloomberg last month, Orr confirmed that a rate cut in May was possible, but he also said it was a difficult decision and there were some reasons not to act, such as a shortage of skilled labor and record export prices.

Because of the trade war the last 18 months, New Zealand’s economy has cooled, with annual growth slowing to 2.3 percent last year from 3.4 percent in 2017. Like the Aussie Dollar, as China goes, the Kiwi goes.

Last night, New Zealand’s central bank cut rates by 25 basis points, sending Kiwi down to its lowest level since Nov. 1st.

RBNZ’s Governor Adrian Orr was out on the wires soon before press time stating that there are significant uncertainties around the rate track in New Zealand and the US-China trade war is one of the major concerns of the central bank. Orr added further that he is surprised by the downturn in business sentiment and consumer spending.

Orr’s comments may bolster expectations of another rate cut in August, complicating Kiwi’s recovery.


So lets go to the charts to see how much further downsize risk there is in the Kiwi.

Monthly Chart (Curve Timeframe) – monthly supply is at 0.7600 and monthly demand is at 0.6300.

Weekly Chart (Trend Timeframe) – the trend is sideways, with downward bias.

Daily Chart (Entry) – price is between daily supply and demand zones. Although there isn’t a trade set-up at the moment, the chart suggests to play the extremes at the daily zones.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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