Oops I Did It Again

I’m not talking about Britney Spears,

but since you mentioned her,

I think I did it again

I made you believe we’re more than just friends

Oh baby

It might seem like a crush

But it doesn’t mean that I’m serious

‘Cause to lose all my senses

That is just so typically me

Oh baby, baby

I’m talking about FedEx.  The last time I wrote about FedEx was one month ago,

Is It Time To Short FedEx Again???

FedEx price did pull back into a daily demand zone, so one possible scenario is a break of $172, a pull back, than a drop to the weekly demand zone at $143.

Personally, I would like to see price go higher at least filling the gap. I don’t like the probability of this trade set-up because price didn’t break the weekly demand zone at $143 first. The best way to play this set-up is to monitor the S&P 500 ETF, SPY. If the SPY starts to break down, the probability of this trade working will increase.

FedEx reported third quarter earnings Tues after the bell that missed Wall Street estimates. The company reported earnings / share of $3.03 on revenue of $17 billion for the period. However, Wall Street was expecting $3.08 / share on revenue of $17.6 billion.  But the kicker of the announcement was the company cut its full-year earnings forecast for a second time.  Needless to say, the stock price dropped in after -market trading.

The CEO cited slowing international macroeconomic conditions and weaker global trade growth, specifically continued weakness in its international Express business.   Ever since I have been writing about FedEx I have added it to my barometer of global economic indicators (along with Caterpillar) as it’s a great gauge on the pulse of the global economy.

FedEx On Notice Today

What their earnings announcement told me is that the global economic fundamentals haven’t changed and the V-shape reverse we saw in late December was based on sentiment (makes were oversold) and hope of returning to corporate earnings growth again when Fed Powell put interest rates on hold.

So are the equity markets next to start breaking down…I don’t know.  But what I feel confident about is a further break down in the FedEx price.  Since we couldn’t even breach the daily supply at $187 and close the gap, the chart suggests the weekly demand that held up in December will be breached as price makes its next leg down, with a next target at the weekly demand at $114.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn’t financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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